If you were told that you had a 62% chance to win the lottery, you would likely be heading out to buy tickets.
Dom Luszczyszyn has been doing daily point projections and playoff probabilities for The Athletic and after last night’s 5-3 win over the Montreal Canadiens, the Philadelphia Flyers now have a 62% to make the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Per Luszczyszyn, the “projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team's projected strength, current health, and their strength of schedule.” His projections have the Flyers at 91.5 points, which is good enough for fourth place in the Metropolitan Division and the first Eastern Conference wild card spot.
The Flyers stumbled a bit after the All-Star break, but they are still 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the only Metropolitan Division team to have a better record than the Flyers during this span (7-3-0).
The rest of the Metropolitan Division has been struggling while the Flyers have been playing well, which is helping their playoff chances rise. The Washington Capitals (4-4-2), New Jersey Devils (4-6-0), Columbus Blue Jackets (3-6-1), New York Islanders (3-5-2) and New York Rangers (3-7-0) have all been playing .500 or below over their last 10 games.